Woo-hoo! A big 4-1 week last week helped me out tremendously, bringing me up to 12-13 on the year, and within a good week of catching the guys at the top of the Team OddsShark standings. Only the Browns' mid-game trainwreck at quarterback (within their season-long trainwreck at quarterback) prevented me from going 5-0.
This week, I'm not nearly as confident in my picks. There are a lot of great matchups, but I struggled to see much value in the lines. Quickly, because I'm slammed this weekend:
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Lions are banged up, and Aaron Donald will probably run wild, but I still think this offense at home can outscore Case Keenum vs. Ziggy Ansah, Darius Slay, et al.
Cleveland Browns (+7) vs. Tennessee Titans
I know, I know, I just got burned by the Browns. But Kessler's back, and they're getting a touchdown, and I don't think the ultra-conservative Titans can score enough points to cover.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
I know that's a big number to cover, but the Falcons' offense hasn't played a defense this talented or physical (when the other team has a competent offense). Very confident the Seahawks, with a healthening Russell Wilson, can win big at home.
Houston Texans (-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts' defense is a disaster, and T.Y. Hilton isn't 100 percent. The Texans offense should bounce back strong at home after their implosion in Minnesota. Would be a lot more confident laying +2.5, but I gotta pick five every week!
New York Jets (+7.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Carson Palmer's coming back from concussion, the Cards have been terrible in prime time and Todd Bowles is coaching for his job against his old team. The hook makes this play for me; I could very easily see the Jets losing this one by seven, but not by more.
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