Despite feeling really good about my picks last week, I ended up 2-3 again, dropping me to 8-12 on the season. Loved the Bills coming through for me, but got burned again by the Jets, Cardinals and Buccaneers. Once again, though, I wasn't alone: The top five consensus SuperContest picks took a massive bath for the third week in a row.
This week, AGAIN, I'm trying to zig where others are zagging and pick up some wins against the field.
Cleveland Browns (+10.5) vs. New England Patriots
I know everyone assumes the Pats are going to roll into town and try to "send a message" by running up the score; even with Tom Brady getting his first action of the year, I'm not sure they're going to be able to do it well enough to cover a massive 10.5 points on the road. I can't see any way Cleveland gets the outright win, but with the way the defense is playing I don't see a 78-0 bloodbath, either.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Titans have the 14th-best scoring defense in the NFL, the Dolphins offense is in disarray and Miami had to deal with hurricane fears all week. I will gladly take the points here.
Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I've been trying to avoid the #homerpick--but even if the 3-0 Eagles are for real, the Lions are in a desperate, must-win situation and the Eagles have spent two weeks sipping mai tais as thinking about how great they are. Love the Lions getting points at home.
Buffalo Bills (+2) at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams haven't played a lot of impressive football en route to 3-1, and they've played some of the worst football we've ever seen. The Bills are on fire right now, and I can't see Case Keenum getting hot against that defense.
New York Giants (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers
The Giants have been winning and losing close all season, and the Packers haven't played a complete game yet. I don't think this Giants team can score enough to pull off a primetime upset in Lambeau, but I also don't think the Packers can roll up 35-plus points on a defense averaging 21.3 a game.