I wasn't the only one who had a rough Week 3; the top five most popular SuperContest picks went 0-5. The two most popular picks were the Steelers and Cardinals; I'd unfortunately picked both.
My 2-3 performance dropped me to 6-9 on the season, but I've got a lot of plays I feel strongly about this week. One of them, the Lions -3 over the Bears, I didn't put in. After two straight weeks of getting burned by the homer thing, I'm doing the smart-gambler thing and refusing to lay points on the road just because the Lions have a top five scoring offense and the Bears have no healthy defenders.
I'm also learning to stay off the obvious public/square plays, even if I think they're layups. I mean, that's why they're public/square plays. So, my SuperContest plays for the Week 4:
Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New England Patriots
I knew Jimmy GQ would probably be good to go for this game, and that's what the late-breaking news is confirming. But I talked to Bills linebacker Preston Brown on Wednesday, and he thinks the defense is finally getting comfortable with the flow of communication/chain of command--which means the Arizona game might not be a fluke.
I still think the Pats are doing amazing things this year, and they'll probably still win. But LeSean McCoy is reborn with Anthony Lynn calling plays, and Rex Ryan will have enough tricks up his sleeve; I feel comfortable taking five and a half points.
New York Jets (+2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Don't be fooled by the Seahawks decimating the 49ers in Seattle. A) the 49ers are brutal on the road, and B) the Seahawks have played the terrible Dolphins, terrible Rams and terrible 49ers and were lucky to go 2-1. The Jets' front seven is going to stampede over this craptacular Seahawks offensive line, and there's no way Fitzmagic throws six picks again.
Love the Jets as home dogs here.
Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. Carolina Panthers
Speaking of, the red-hot Falcons are getting points at home, and the Panthers have absolutely no one who can match up on a healthy Julio Jones. Cam and company will probably bounce back from their awful performance against Minnesota, but I think the Falcons win this shootout outright.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Denver Broncos
Trevor Siemian is feeling his oats, and he got away with a couple of poor throws last week. The Bucs have the secondary to make him pay for those, and I can't believe Jameis has three straight terrible games.
San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Remember what I said about the 49ers being much worse on the road? They're far better at home over the past few years, as the Rams found out. On the other side, Dak Prescott's been doing a good job keeping it between the lines--but this 49ers front seven has too much talent to get conservative against them. I like the 49ers to pull the upset here, and not just against the spread.